The two usual causes are an impact to the track - a car bumper, a bike, a stored ladder that got leaned against it - and a roller that's finally worn out or cracked and let the door drift sideways in the channel. With Gardner's housing built mostly after 2002, we're not dealing with forty-year-old steel rollers that have simply worn thin the way we might in an older part of the area; it's more often a roller that cracked under cold-weather contraction or a bracket that loosened from vibration over the years.
Cold is a factor here too. This area sits in a climate band with real winter cold, and a garage door that's slightly misaligned in October can bind hard enough in January's contraction to pop a roller clean off the track. If your door's been riding a little rough for a few weeks and then suddenly jumps track on a cold morning, that's usually the final step in a problem that was building for a while, not a one-time accident.
We can't tell you over the phone whether it's a bent track or worn rollers without seeing it - the symptoms overlap too much to guess right every time.